Iraqs oil minister believes his nation can produce 10-12  million barrels of oil  a day  sometime in the next 5 to 10 years. That would  be 5 times the  2.2  million barrels  Iraq is producing at present.   Those 10-12 million barrels represent more oil than  either of  the two largest oil producers today Russia and Saudi Arabia. can accomplish.

This prognosis would  have global ramifications for the price of oil, for the rate of inflation,  and potential profits for the  oil producers like  the Chinese and French who may have the inside track.  It would also  make  up in part for the blow to deep sea drilling after the BP blowout in the Gulf of Mexico or the fallout from the partial nuclear meltdown in Japan.

This  bold message  was given  to a small group of  Americans in a trip organized  by the Council on Foreign Relations, according to Robert Rosenkrantz, a 67 year old financier, CEO of Delphi Financial Group and founder of the Intelligence Squared debate series that can be seen on television.

In a private note to friends Rosenkrantz wrote  I dont believe this (10-12 million barrels) is credible, but neither  is it impossible, and if achieved  would  make Iraq the worlds largest oil producer and would by itself  satisfy around half of projected global increases in demand.

Rosenkrantz doesnt see the opportunity for  a huge profit gain for oil majors like Exxon Mobil, British Petroleum,  Shell or Chevron. Thats because Iraq is asking oil majors to  provide technical services  for rock bottom fees, but offering  minimal incentives to provide the  $100 billion plus of capital that will be required.

Rosenkrantz believes the Chinese and the French  oil giants will have the inside track.(Elf Acquitaine had the inside track to Saddam Husseins Iraq) But, he disdains the bullish aspects of Iraqs additional oil reserves, since Iraq  remains one of the most socialist countries in the world The Iraqui government like  socialist governments everywhere, does not begin to understand market incentives.

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